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A by-election loss could be a long-term win for Labour

Tomorrow there is a by-election in Queens Park ward for a seat on Brighton and Hove City Council. The by-election was caused by the resignation of one of the two Labour councillors first elected in May 2023. The other councillor resigned within a year of being elected. Not a great look for Labour. In the first by-election in May 2024, Labour held the seat when Milla Guage was elected with 46% of the vote and a substantial majority of 448 over her Green Party challenger. Two things were going in Labour’s favour in that by-election: the first was, in Milla, Labour had a dynamic young woman candidate and, second, Labour was on the cusp of winning a substantial majority in the general election two months later. This time Labour is fielding a 69-year-old man who some might say is ‘male, stale and pale’  against a dynamic young woman candidate, and Labour could hardly be in a worse position in the polls. In the short term, the very best result that Labour can hope for is that its candidate, Simon Charlton, somehow beats the Green’s Marina Lademacher, even with a single figure majority. The Greens, on the other hand, have everything to gain. There are some in the Green Party who regard Marina as a future leader of the Greens in the city, and even a possible future leader of the Council itself.  The two campaigns have been starkly contrasting. The Green campaign has been filled with optimism and has been well-supported, both locally and by people from outside the area. Their campaign hit the ground running even before Labour had selected a candidate. The Greens are on a high, not due to the use of wacky baccy, but because of how they are doing in the polls, winning council by-elections, and the election of a populist new leader, Zack Polanski. He’s not my cup of green tea, but young people are inspired by him and he is giving Green activists turbo-charged oomph.  On the other hand, Labour’s campaign has been a miserable affair. Generally, there is little enthusiasm amongst Labour members because of policy failures and incompetent leadership at a national level, along with a succession of scandals, including those involving Angela Rayner and Peter Mandelson. There were low expectations of Starmer, and he has failed to meet even these because of his inability to manage his party with even a modicum of competence. At the time of writing Starmer is fighting his own party where there are widespread calls for him to sack his chief-of-staff, Morgan McSweeney. Locally, there is limited enthusiasm amongst activists for its Queens Park candidate partly due to the controversy surrounding his selection, while Marina Lademacher is very popular amongst Green activists. Ironically, the best long term result for Labour is a Green victory in Queens Park. Such a result, following similar results up and down the country, will add to the crescendo of calls for Starmer to go. Will Labour’s two Brighton and Hove MPs, Peter Kyle and Chris Ward, both Ministers in Starmer’s government, have the courage or the political nous to say to their boss that his time is up. I doubt that either will as they are both so closely aligned to and identified with Starmer’s failing form of politics. The evidence is there for Peter and Chris. Since the beginning of August, there have been nine council by-election in England and Wales in Labour-held seats. In six of these, Labour lost the seat to Reform UK. Two were lost to the Green Party, and the party held just one. As for tomorrow’s Queens Park by-election, momentum is with the Greens who should win the seat. Labour should finish second, although they are facing a challenge from the Independent candidate, Adrian Hart, who is standing in the seat for the fourth time. However, his vote has plateaued between 450 and 500 votes in each of the three previous occasions he has stood. For the first time Reform UK is fielding a candidate in this ward. A Reform UK win, highly unlikely in my opinion, would send shockwaves through the political classes in Brighton and Hove. Its candidate, John Shepherd, has not run anything resembling a campaign, but he will be hoping to beat both the Conservative’s Sunny Choudhury, and the Lib Dem Rudi Dikty-Daudiyan.  Starmer and his supporters are still ignoring the question: “Should he go?” For some while the question has been: “When will he go?”. The question that many are now asking is: “Who will will replace Starmer?” It’s not if, not when, but who? Andy Winter is a former councillor who worked in social care and homelessness services for 40 years

17th, September 2025, 05:00pm

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